Climate Change

According to the predictions and observations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ticino is likely to endure the effects, both major and minor, of more precipitation, sea level increase in the nearby Ligurian Sea, cyclonic activity in the nearby Atlantic Ocean, increased runoff from the Swiss Alps, and increased average temperatures. These are predictions not to be taken as fact, but as extremely valid possibilities backed up by scientific data and evidence. It is upon this IPCC report that I present what potential risks Ticino may face in the future.

The overall climate of Ticino will most likely become wetter and warmer. The most noticeable extreme event that Ticino will encounter is increased precipitation. The type of damage this can cause is soil erosion, which can have very negative effects on agriculture as the land may become to frail to cultivate. These climatic issues can develop into issues regarding the socioeconomic status of Ticino. It can affect transportation, as roads and access to other cities may be inhibited. Local infrastructure may be damaged from heavy rain and flooding. Perhaps Lake Maggiore and Lake Lugano will flood and damage the homes on the coast of these areas. In fact, Ascona Airport is right off the coast of Lake Maggiore, and to its disadvantage, so are most of the major public transportation lines. If commercial buildings and homes are damaged, the city is no longer operating normally.

I foresee that Ticino is most likely be able to withstand and adapt to these climate changes, as many of them are minor issues compared with the extensive precipitation yet to come. Ticino's location, wedged against the Alps, may come to an advantage so long as the people make active adjustments to these warnings. I'm not necessarily saying "head for the hills", but if they can move to higher elevation if massive flooding does occur, then I believe that is their best bet.

Temperature Data & Trends

Meso and Micro-Scale Climate Controls
There are quite a bit of natural and man-made climate controls that affect the area of Ticino. Perhaps the most obvious is the proximity of the Swiss Alps, which affect precipitation, as well as the proximity of Lake Maggiore and the Ligurian Sea, which have an affect on moisture. The weather station is also near rivers and streams and is in a semi-urban environment in which the data can be affected. It is also located in a depression of a mountain, where there is colder winds/air affecting data as well.
Further information about location via http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:00000.6.06762&bannertypeclick=wu_blueglass


Historical Temperature Data

Data provided by http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/LOCARNO-MAGADINO/67620.htm

The chart above describes the trends in temperature (in degrees Celsius) in Locarno, Ticino over the last 5 decades or so. The average maximum temperatures went from a high of 16.3 degrees Celsius in 1955, to a high of 18.2 degrees Celsius. While that is only a couple degrees in temperature change, it can truly affect habitation in the area. The trend-line shows that there is a slight increase in average temperature, providing room for speculation upon climate change in general.


Ticino Climograph

Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification

Image/Data via http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at/pics/kottek_et_al_2006.gif

This map describes the area of Ticino as having a few different varieties of climate, according to the Koppen-Geiger classification. It is a little difficult to read, and I enlarged it as much as possible, but a world map is the only valid data I could find. It appears as though Ticino is classified as a mix of warm temperate climate, fully humid, with warm summers. In other areas nearby, it is classified as snow climate, fully humid, with warm summers.  The variability in classification is probably the result of the Swiss Alps, and how they play a role in precipitation and snowy weather patterns.

Switzerland's First Weather Station 1882

Image source via http://genevalunch.com/blog/category/travel/page/2/

This is a photo of Switzerland's very first weather station which was put into place in 1882 on the top of Mt. Santis.

Reflection

VS. Miami, Florida

Compared to Ticino, Switzerland, Miami has a much different climatic setting. Miami is sub-tropical and hot, with temperatures ranging from about 60 degrees Fahrenheit to about 90 degrees Fahrenheit. The temperature never really reaches near the freezing point. This greatly contrasts Ticino, in which the temperatures remain very cool, ranging from 20 degrees Fahrenheit to 65 degrees Fahrenheit. Ticino's average high is Miami's average low. Both regions do remain humid, however, for some different reasons. Miami's strong humidity comes from its location right off the coast, giving it moist, maritime air mass. Ticino's relatively moderate humidity comes from the leeward precipitation from the Swiss Alps, as well as a small amount of maritime air coming from the Tyrrhenian Sea and nearby lakes. There is a major difference in precipitation patters between these two regions. Miami can receive up to 9 inches of precipitation in one month, whereas Ticino only receives up to 5 inches in one month. In general, Miami is a mT (maritime tropical) region, and Ticino is a cT(continental tropical) and mP (maritime polar) region.

Miami's location off the coast of the North Atlantic as well as the Gulf of Mexico makes for a perfect setting to be hit during hurricane seasons. The photo above shows the frequency of hurricanes that pass through Miami, just to give you an idea. Image from The Weather Channel - Stu Ostro (http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_13322.html) 

Other than some severe thunderstorms, Ticino doesn't receive any natural disasters because it is fairly landlocked, and is protected by the Swiss Alps. Image from Sebastian at http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69619-lugano-ticino-switzerland/.

Information about Miami found via Alex Kessel at http://weatherclimate-akess.blogspot.com/.